Climate change and long-term energy supplies

"As we enter the next Century, new and difficult choices may have to be made if we are to achieve a sustainable future. We will need to find ways of breaking the link between economic development and increasing emissions of greenhouse gases, in particular CO₂. New technologies may emerge that will help to alleviate the problem, but they cannot be relied upon to solve it. Unequivocal evidence of the existence of human-induced climate change is unlikely to be available for some years, but meanwhile, taking a precautionary approach, we need to plan ahead now. " [Para.10.28]

Extract from Government White Paper, Climate Change: The UK Programme. (Cm 2427). January 1994.

20. Climate change has been an increasing preoccupation worldwide for the last quarter century; it profoundly affects energy policy everywhere. The First World Climate Conference was held in 1979; the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 and published its First Assessment Report in 1990 for the Second World Climate Conference. That Report concluded that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere had increased substantially as a result of human activity and that this was expected to enhance the natural greenhouse effect. At the Earth Summit in Rio in June 1992, over 150 countries signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Article 4 committed developed and certain other country Parties to "... the aim of returning individually or jointly to their 1990 levels ... anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases ..." by the end of the decade.
21. In December 1995, the IPCC published its Second Assessment Report⁸ which stated that "... the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate". This statement gave added impetus to the international negotiations in Geneva in July 1996 as part of the Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change. In the words of the Environment Secretary, "... global climate change needs global action now. We have a clear message from the IPCC about what is in store for us if we do not act. The alarm bells ought to be ringing in every capital throughout the world".
22. The IPCC estimated that if no action were taken to curb the rise in carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases, the rate of climate change next century would be likely to be more rapid than it had been at any time during the last 10,000 years and sea level could rise by about half a metre by the end of the next century. In Britain, this could flood low-lying land, affect soils and crops, and imperil habitats including those of millions of migratory birds. Worldwide, the impact could be more dramatic, particularly for members of the Alliance of Small Island States, and for Bangladesh, Egypt and parts of China. Serious impacts are also expected on water supplies especially in the more vulnerable regions. Droughts and floods are likely to become more intense and more frequent. Many living organisms, humans among them, would find it difficult to adapt to such a rapid rate of change.
23. Although climate change is expected to bring about an average increase in temperature worldwide, it is far from certain what the effects will be in particular localities. For example, it is possible that changes in the ocean current system could weaken the Gulf Stream and lead to cooler conditions in western Europe. By contrast, the Climate Change Impacts Review Group (CCIRG)⁹ has estimated that by the 2020s, the climate in the British Isles is likely to be about 1^oC warmer and 5% wetter than the period 1961-90 and more geographically contrasted, with the dry southeast tending to becoming drier and the moist northwest becoming wetter. Droughts and floods might both become more common. Its report concludes that "... changes in climate may lead to significant impacts ... and may require explicit adaptation policies and measures in certain sectors and areas".
24. Progress at international level in containing greenhouse gas emissions has been slow. About half of the major industrial countries look likely to fail to reduce emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. Although Britain is expected to meet its commitment, this success is largely due to the so-called dash for gas with coal-fired power stations being closed down in favour of new gas-fired stations. Meanwhile emissions are soaring in other countries and even if carbon dioxide emissions were to remain at 1994 levels, atmospheric concentrations would continue to increase for several hundred years. The Panel welcomes Government efforts to push forward international consensus and action on climate change, and supports, as a minimum, the proposal by the Environment Secretary that all industrial countries should aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a figure between 5% and 10% below 1990 levels by the year 2010. Much greater reductions will be required later. The Panel believes that the Government should continue to press other countries to meet their obligations for the year 2000 and recommends that the Government should strive to secure agreement, within the European Union and with the United States, on exacting new world targets beyond the year 2000 in time for the Third Conference of the Parties to the Climate Change Convention in Japan in December 1997.
25. These aims impinge directly on the way in which all countries - industrial or otherwise - generate energy. Unless the major industrial countries give a lead, others are unlikely to tackle the problem effectively. In short, climatic factors must be brought more fully into decisions about the supply of energy and its use. In Britain the Government's pilot environmental accounts showed, for example, that in 1993 electricity generation contributed 1.5% of total value added (its share of gross domestic product) but produced 25% of greenhouse gas emissions; when emissions from electricity generators were reallocated to end purchasers of the energy, private households were revealed as the cause of 30% of greenhouse gas emissions. The accounts¹⁰ also contain information on the depletion of oil and gas reserves in 1993. Building on this data and the Government's indicators of sustainable development, a way must be found for energy prices to reflect the effect of energy use on climate change and the need to develop alternative sources of supply.
26. The Government's view continues to be that its energy policy "...will best be achieved by means of competitive energy markets working within a stable framework of law and regulation to protect health, safety, and the environment¹¹" . But fossil fuel prices do not take account of damage to the environment, climate change and environmental costs generally; nor will the removal of subsidies or the introduction of more competition into energy markets ensure that environmental objectives are met. Indeed without bringing environmental factors into calculation of production costs, lower prices arising from competition could lead to continued waste of energy and discourage investment in energy saving and efficiency. A greater effort on energy conservation measures including incentives is therefore needed.
27. The availability of primary energy, as distinct from its use, is unlikely to be a major problem for the first half of the next century: at present rates of production and usage, proven reserves of fossil fuels are thought to be around 45 years for oil, 65 years for natural gas and 235 years for coal. While fossil fuels, particularly gas, will continue to have a role, most commentators (both in the industry and in the environmental lobby) expect renewable sources to become more important as their costs diminish. And environmental considerations will increasingly affect future choice of energy sources. The combined effects of environmental factors, technical innovation, financial pressures, restructuring and policies to reduce dependence on imported supplies, could lead to a much less carbon-intensive energy system, based on efficient, decentralized energy generation relying heavily on renewable energy sources. Some countries will look to nuclear energy, biomass, wind power and particularly to solar energy through use of photovoltaic cells. World energy markets are therefore likely to change significantly over the next century in response to these factors and to the predicted growth in world demand.
28. In Britain development of renewable energy has been piecemeal and has lagged behind initiatives elsewhere. The relative short-termism of competitive markets means that market forces alone will not lead to the development of renewable resources on the necessary scale. The Panel considers that to reduce or even to contain emissions of greenhouse gases beyond 2000, the Government will need to develop a strategic energy policy which promotes energy efficiency and conservation in all sectors of society; incorporates costs relating to climatic factors into energy prices; and provides continuing support for non-fossil fuel sources of energy.

⁹Review of the Potential Effects of Climate Change in the United Kingdom. Conclusions and Summary. Department of the Environment. July 1996.  

¹⁰Pilot UK Environmental Accounts. Office for National Statistics. Economic Trends, August 1996.

¹¹The Energy Report. Change and Opportunity. Department of Trade and Industry. HMSO, 1996. ISBN 0-11-515406-X.