To tread more lightly on the planet, our diets must change
Thoughts from Commissioner Tim Lang speaking at the Holyrood Conference on Scotland's National Food Policy
At no time in history has the pace and scale of change in our diet been faster than the last 50 years.
During this time consumer choice has massively increased but choice is part of the problem – it is not part of the solution. Waste, over-consumption and unhealthy diets are rife, we can’t go on like this.
Food security (the term used to refer to the task of ensuring enough food to feed all) is now frequently in the media. Unlike previous food crises, what troubles analysts today is that, this time there are at least eight features of the 20th century food revolution whose fundamentals are now under threat in the 21st century.
The first is the energy crisis. Oil hit $100 a barrel in 2007. 95% of food products are oil-dependent , and agricultural productivity gains rely on fertilisers and mechanisation . The first rush to biofuels as substitute oil is now looking thin. If land goes to biofuels, that’s less land for food. The OECD calculated that the USA, Canada and European Union would need to switch between 30% and 70% of their current crop areas to provide just 10% of their transport fuel needs . Only Brazil’s use of sugarcane has decent efficiencies.
Secondly, world food commodities prices are rocketing. This is more than speculation. Buffer stocks are at their lowest status for decades. Per capita availability has faltered since the 1980s The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation estimates that imported foodstuffs exceeded US$ 400 billion in 2007, 5% above the 2006 record. Most of this increase is due to rising prices of imported coarse grains and vegetable oils – the commodity groups which feature most heavily in bio-fuel production. FAO forecasts these to rise by 13% in 2008 - difficult for rich country importers but dire for developing countries.
Thirdly, world population is rising rapidly. 6.6 billion in 2007, it will be 9.1 billion by 2050 . Urbanisation appears unstoppable. In 1961, one billion lived in towns; it was two billion by 1986; three billion by 2003, and is projected to be four billion by 2018 and five billion by 2030 . The scale of the population’s growth and its food requirements are unprecedented.
This raises the fourth problem, labour: if urbanization is inexorable, who will be the rural labour force? An estimated 50% of world’s workforce works in agriculture . Of this 1.1 billion workers, 450m (40%) are waged labour, 170m are children and 20-30% are women working for lower wages, often in the export trade . This is the reality the fair-trade movement has set out to counter, arguing that urban consumers who barely know where their food comes from need to be re-engaged with the sometimes dire and hazardous reality of working on the land. Half the 355,000 workplace fatalities which the International Labour Organisation estimates occur each year are in agriculture.
The fifth fundamental is land. Available productive land depends on sea levels, drainage and investment. Optimists propose that the world could bring into use about 12% more land than is currently under cultivation. This might well be so, but marginal lands tend to be less productive and more expensive to use. Climate change is highly likely to change which lands can grow most. But the politics will probably centre on national ‘footprints’. By the 1990s each US citizen had a notional 1.9 ha of cropland and pasture land from which to be fed. In China, each person’s footprint was already a fifth of that, 0.4 ha/person . But land availability per person has dropped significantly since. A recent UK study showed consumers actually use food as though they have six times more land and sea available to them than they do . And far from being efficient, the UK Government calculates that consumers throw away about a quarter of all food produced. One form of waste (spoilage on farm and in store) has been replaced by another (waste in homes).
The sixth fundamental is water. Globally, of all drinkable freshwater, households use 10%, industry 20% and agriculture 70% . Today 92% of humanity has a relative sufficiency of drinkable water but by 2025 this will be 62% . The notion of ‘embedded water’ is likely to be as important as greenhouse gas emissions. To produce one kilo of grain-fed beef requires 15 cubic metres of water. One kilo of cereals needs 0.4-3 cubic metres . There is talk of labelling foods for their water. A 250 ml glass of beer uses 75 litres of water; a glass of apple juice takes190; a 150 g hamburger takes 2400 . Without knowing it, food trade transfers water across borders. The equivalent of 20 Nile Rivers already move annually from developing to developed countries .
The seventh threat is already high on the agenda, climate change. The Stern report on Climate Change found agriculture responsible for 14% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Of agriculture’s emissions, fertilizers were responsible for 38% . Livestock was the second greatest source of agriculture-related GHGs, accounting for 31%. A 2006 European Union life cycle assessment of consumer impacts found that food and drink sector to be the most significant source of GHGs, accounting for 20-30% of the various environmental impacts of the most common forms of European consumption . The most significant sectors were firstly meat and meat products and secondly the dairy sector.
The eight fundamental is what in health circles is called the nutrition transition. As people become more affluent, they change their diets, eating more sugars, soft drinks, meat and dairy . This in turn is associated with a shift in disease patterns. There is a rise in diet-related ill-health from chronic diseases such as heart disease, cancer, diabetes and obesity . If we eat a high meat diet, its impact is far greater than if we eat a plant-based diet. The FAO has calculated that livestock generates 18% of total greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 equivalent), more than transport . I
Each of these eight fundamentals poses a serious challenge to world food capacity. But the truth is that they are linked. Should humans stop treating the planet as a limitless resource? Definitely yes. But hooked onto global growth, can we develop a way of consuming which tread lighter on the earth? Here the answer is ‘it is not clear yet’.
The solutions all depend on whether we want more of the same diet and lifestyle or are prepared to change.
Politicians and business leaders are locked into electoral and consuming cycles. Each bows to consumer sovereignty. But rich consumers show no sign of being prepared to consume both less and differently. So business and politics pander to them. This is why genetic modification (GM) is looked to as the 21st century technical fix, the new Green Revolution. GM plantings are rising globally, despite resistance in some regions. But even the strongest GM proponents know that it cannot resolve all eight of the fundamental challenges. Productivity of biofuels or cereals might rise but still wouldn’t produce oil equivalence sufficient to feed people to ‘Western’ living standards. That’s why there will be more interest in dietary change as a policy focus. If everyone eats meat and dairy like the US or Europe, the world continues walking into a crisis. A recent study of the UK showed how the current six-planet living food profile becomes more sustainable if diet is radically altered. If we eat less, and farm differently, there is room for manoeuvre. The pressure is thus likely to be on consumers to change. The political question is not will they, but when will they and will it take crisis to engender the change?
The Scottish Government is right to be taking a holistic approach to food by considering the economic, environmental and social aspects of food together is essential. But the Government needs to start mass mainstream change by taking difficult decisions and not underestimating the degree of change needed to cope with the challenges ahead.
Food is built into our culture and economy, so there is no short fix – no omelette can be made without breaking eggs!
Notes:
Find out more about the SDC’s work on food and consumption
An edited version of this article appeared in The Scotsman newspaper on Saturday 10th May 2008
